Chinchilla is a 70-billion-parameter language model that DeepMind presented in 2022. It is famous less for itself than for the rule it put to the test: if the compute budget is fixed, model size and amount of data should grow together (Hoffmann et al., 2022, sec. 1).
The question
A large model is trained only once, with a number of accelerators and an amount of time decided in advance. The practical question is how to split that budget between parameters and tokens. The scaling laws of Kaplan et al. (2020) answered: mostly on parameters. By their fit, optimal size grows as C^0.73 and data only as C^0.27; one should train huge models and stop them well before convergence (2020, secs. 1.1–1.2). Industry followed the recipe: GPT-3, Jurassic-1, Gopher and Megatron-Turing NLG, from 175 to 530 billion parameters, were trained on about 300 billion tokens (Hoffmann et al., 2022, table 1).
How they answered it
Hoffmann et al. (2022) trained more than 400 models, from 70 million to over 16 billion parameters, on 5 to 500 billion tokens, and estimated the optimal split by three different methods (2022, sec. 3). All three agreed: the exponents are roughly 0.5 and 0.5. Every time the model doubles, the data should double. Their tables give about 20 tokens per parameter (1 billion parameters, 20.2 billion tokens; 10 billion, 205 billion), the ratio that later became a rule of thumb (2022, table 3). The gap with Kaplan came partly from method: that work used the same learning-rate schedule for all training lengths, and smaller models (2022, sec. 2).
The conclusion implied that almost all large models were "undertrained." To test it, they trained Chinchilla on the same budget as Gopher (5.76 × 10²³ FLOPs): a quarter of the parameters and 1.4 trillion tokens, with the same 80-block decoder architecture but half as wide (2022, secs. 3, 4.1). Chinchilla outperformed Gopher (280 billion), GPT-3, Jurassic-1 and Megatron-Turing NLG on almost every evaluation and reached 67.6% on the MMLU benchmark, 7.6 points above Gopher (2022, secs. 4.2.2, 5).
What changed
Since then, data has become as important a bottleneck as parameters; the authors themselves call for larger, higher-quality datasets and warn about the toxicity and privacy issues that come with trillions of web-scraped tokens (2022, sec. 5). The recipe was soon adjusted again: the creators of LLaMA pointed out that Chinchilla's criterion ignores the cost of using the model, and trained smaller models for much longer; their 13-billion version beats GPT-3 on most benchmarks while being ten times smaller (Touvron, Lavril, et al., 2023, sec. 1). Alammar & Grootendorst (2024) register the effect on vocabulary: if a model ten times smaller does what GPT-3 does, is it still "large" (2024, p. 25)? The phrase "post-Chinchilla" made it into the p(doom) song, which uses it to mark an era (osmarks, n.d.).
Limits
The authors acknowledge that they have only two comparable large runs, that they assume a power law while there are signs of curvature, and that all their models saw less than one pass over the data (Hoffmann et al., 2022, sec. 5). The last point matters as available text runs out: with limited data, repeating it for up to four epochs is almost as good as new data, but beyond that the value of extra compute fades away (Muennighoff et al., 2025).